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Modelling the socio-economic impact of river floods in Europe

机译:模拟欧洲河流洪水的社会经济影响

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摘要

River floods generate a large share of the socio-economic impact of weather-driven hazards worldwide. Accurate assessment of their impact is a key priority for governments, international organization, reinsurance companies and emergency responders. Yet, available databases of flood losses over large domains are often affected by gaps and inconsistencies in reported figures. In this work, a framework to reconstruct the economic damage and population affected by river floods at continental scale is applied. Pan-European river flow simulations are coupled with a high-resolution impact assessment framework based on 2-D inundation modelling. Two complementary methods are compared in their ability to estimate the climatological average flood impact and the impact of each flood event in Europe between 1990 and 2013. The event-based method reveals key features, such as the ability to include changes in time of all three components of risk, namely hazard, exposure and vulnerability. Furthermore, it skilfully reproduces the socio-economic impact of major flood events in the past two decades, including the severe flooding hitting central Europe in June 2013. On the other hand, the integral method is capable of reproducing the average flood losses which occurred in Europe between 1998 and 2009. Strengths and limitations of the proposed model are discussed to stress the large potential for filling in the gaps of current datasets of flood impact.
机译:在世界范围内,洪水引起的洪水对社会经济的影响很大。准确评估其影响是政府,国际组织,再保险公司和应急人员的关键优先事项。但是,可用的大范围洪灾损失数据库通常受报告数字的缺口和不一致影响。在这项工作中,采用了一个框架来重建大陆规模的河流洪水所造成的经济损失和人口。泛欧洲河流水流模拟与基于二维淹没模型的高分辨率影响评估框架结合在一起。比较了两种互补方法的估计气候平均洪水影响的能力以及1990年至2013年欧洲每个洪水事件的影响。基于事件的方法揭示了关键特征,例如能够将这三个时间的变化都包括在内风险的组成部分,即危害,暴露和脆弱性。此外,它巧妙地再现了过去二十年中主要洪水事件的社会经济影响,包括2013年6月中欧遭受的严重洪灾。另一方面,积分法能够再现发生在2008年的平均洪灾损失。欧洲在1998年至2009年之间。讨论了该模型的优点和局限性,以强调填补当前洪水影响数据集空白的巨大潜力。

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